Why the Madagascar team may fall to the Harambee Stars scalp in the Quarters

By Anderson Ojwang

After 38 years, Kenya’s Harambee Stars are back to a major continental tournament, where they are currently rewriting history and setting a precedent.

Just like in 1987, the All Africa’s Game, during President Daniel Arap Moi’s regime, the team wrote history by reaching the tournament finals and only losing to the then giant Egypt, the Pharaohs.

That was the last time Kenya’s dominance in continental football was witnessed and it was capped by the Mighty Gor Mahia, winning the country the first ever African Cup Winners. Just like Harambee Stars, the Gor Mahia embers also faded out and have failed to click continentally.

From the data, the Madagascar national team from 1972 to 1980 maintained dominance over Kenya, turning them into whipping boys.

Even though the international games were friendly, the Kenya team received a thumping that necessitated a wake-up call.

In May 1972, an international friendly match played in Kenya, the first game, Kenya lost 1-3 and in April 1979, similarly in Madagascar, Kenya lost 0-4.

In December 1980, an unlisted international friendly played in Madagascar, Kenya lost by a similar margin of 4-0.

But the following year, in June during the Indian Ocean Games played in Kenya, the national team walked from the shadows to defeat the opponent by a sweet solitary goal. History in the making.

But again, as fate would have it, in May 1983 in another friendly match played in Kenya, Harambee Stars fell by 2-1 and that became the defining moment for the Kenya team.

In March 1987, during the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers played at home, Harambee Stars overcame the opponents by winning 2-0 but lost in the return leg in April by 1-2. That marked the last time the Madagascar national team beat Kenya.

In August 1987, the same year, during the All Africa Games played in Kenya, Harambee Stars turned tables to beat Madagascar by 2-1, the similar margin they had lost with in the away game.

In October 1998, in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers played at home, the two teams settled for a drab draw and in the following year, the return match played away in June 1999, another drab draw with a similar margin was recorded.

The last meeting was in June 2019 in France during an international friendly where Kenya beat Madagascar by a solitary goal, this was on neutral ground.

Observation
The two teams have faced off in 11 matches with five matches being friendly. In the friendlies, Madagascar have won four times while Kenya won the last encounter.

In the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, the two teams have met four times with two draws and one win each.

In the tournaments, they have met twice with Kenya winning on both occasions.

As history may have it, in 1987, All Africa Games, the then President was Moi and currently the President is William Arap Ruto.

The Madagascar dominance over Kenya ended in 1983 and after that, it has become a mixed grill of results.

In the tournaments, Madagascar have never defeated Kenya and the last time they beat Kenya at home was in 1983.

From the above data and the current motivation in the national team with the supportive team, Kenya’s Harambee Stars are likely to prevail over their opponent.

For Madagascar, they will have to overcome the dark history of losing to Kenya in the tournaments.

For Kenya, history and data stand with them and it will not come as a surprise if they overcome their opponent by a similar margin victory they have maintained over them.

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