By Anderson Ojwang
Eyes are on the Malava Constituency by-election, the curtain raiser for the 2027 presidential election — the fierce race and battle for the 2,217,948 votes.
The curtain raiser pits President William Ruto of the Broad-Based Government against the United Opposition of Kalonzo Musyoka, Rigathi Gachagua, George Natembeya, Dr. Fred Matiangi, among others in the outfit.
Equally, it is billed as the test ground for the Luhya supremacy battle between the Natembeya-led team and the Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker of the National Assembly Moses Wetangula team. Who will call the shots in Luhya land in the 2027 elections?
Malava Constituency offers fodder for the battle for the 2,217,948 Luhya votes, which in successive presidential elections, the majority have voted for the ODM presidential candidate, the late Raila Amolo Odinga.
Interestingly, the immediate former MP, Moses Malulu Injendi, was elected on the Amani Congress Party of Mudavadi, which he later dissolved to join President Ruto’s UDA.
The United Opposition candidate, Seth Panyako of DAP-K, starts as a favorite, having lost the 2022 election to Injendi by only 2,662 votes. Injendi got 22,891 votes to his 20,138.
The exit of Raila from the scene has leveled the playing ground for Ruto against the United Opposition, with the president hoping to build on the 386,456 votes he received in the 2022 presidential elections.
In the last general election, it was only in Bungoma County, the backyard of the Speaker of the National Assembly, Moses Wetangula, where Ruto defeated Raila in the entire Western Kenya. In Bungoma County, Ruto got 255,906 against Raila’s 145,280.
In Vihiga County, the home turf of his Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Ruto managed 67,633 against Raila’s 114,714 votes.
In Kakamega and Busia counties, Ruto secured 141,186 and 48,801 respectively, against Raila’s strong command of 357,187 and 236,042 respectively.
With only 17 days to the by-election, the race is getting murkier, with major realignments, compromises, and betrayals likely to be witnessed.
Yesterday, DAP-K deputy party leader and also Deputy Governor for Kakamega County, Ayub Savula, crossed over and declared his support for UDA candidate David Ndakwa.
The Eugene Wamalwa-led DAP-K party is presenting unionist Seth Panyako in a two-horse race.
Before Savula endorsed the UDA candidate, the UDA Disciplinary Committee had issued summons to Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale to explain why disciplinary action should not be taken against him for alleged misconduct and disloyalty.
In a letter signed by the Disciplinary Committee Chairman, Mr. Charles Njenga accused Khalwale of supporting a candidate of a rival party in the by-election.
“Your open support for a rival candidate clearly demonstrates that you are supporting a position against your own party’s interest and acting outside the expected conduct of a UDA member,” read the letter in part.
UDA has now successfully avenged Khalwale’s move by capturing Savula, DAP-K deputy party leader — a game of chess.
Savula said, “Savula ni kupiga hesabu (Savula does calculations). When you see some walking here, the likes of Natembeya, Cleophas Malala, Bonny Khalwale, wanapiga hesabu kwenda nyumbani (their calculations will take them home).
Here in Malava, you supported Malala, he got into the government, why did he disappear to the opposition?
Khalwale contested for governor seat and lost and went back to senatorial. Will you support one term while you have never been in the opposition?”
In a move that was expected to galvanize the opposition vote, Gachagua-led DCP party had withdrawn their candidate, Mr. Edgar Busiega, in support of Panyako, in what they termed a United Opposition agenda to deliver the seat.
Malala said the United Opposition struck a consensus to field one candidate against the UDA candidate in the November by-elections.
Malala said it was important for the opposition to head to the November polls united if they are to clinch the seat.
Malala said: “Na viongozi wetu wote wamekubaliana kwamba hatuwezi kuwa tunajiita United Opposition na kwa kiti ndogo kama ya ubunge, tunapigana wenyewe kwa wenyewe. Tumefanya scientific research, tukapata kwamba ndugu yetu Panyako ako juu kidogo (Our leaders have agreed that we cannot call ourselves United Opposition if we fight over a parliamentary seat. We conducted scientific research that revealed Panyako was leading).”
“By the time I have conceded, it is after I have assessed his abilities and indeed established that I am leaving Malava in safer hands,” said Busiega.
George Natembeya called for unity to deliver victory for Seth Panyako.
“Together, we stand united in our shared vision of a prosperous and empowered region, one conversation, one rally, and one collective voice at a time,” Natembeya said.
Khalwale has been crisscrossing the constituency seeking votes for Panyako and hailed the move by the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) to withdraw their candidate from the Malava by-election in favor of DAP-K.
Khalwale described the move by Busiega and his party as standing on the right side of history by joining Panyako’s team, which, according to their internal opinion polls, shows Panyako as the frontrunner among other candidates.
“Congratulations to Team Edgar Busiega for joining the big dream and standing on the right side of history by so graciously stepping down unconditionally for Seth Panyako. The Malava by-election is coming around just fine,” Khalwale said.
Mudavadi, in a bid to avoid being drowned, has expanded his political strategy by enlisting the support of religious leaders and professionals.
Mudavadi, who has been tasked to spearhead the UDA campaigns, has a date with destiny. All eyes are on Mudavadi on whether he can successfully anchor Ruto’s boat to safe landing in Luhya land and deliver the over 2 million votes.
The Malava by-election is the launching pad for the Luhya vote bloc, and it is a must-win for either political divide. For Mudavadi and Natembeya, it is a date with destiny.
