By Billy Mijungu
The uneasy courtship between the Orange Democratic Movement and the United Democratic Alliance cannot survive on goodwill alone. Politics is arithmetic before it is emotion. Without a clear zoning formula, this arrangement risks collapsing under the weight of suspicion and long term ambition.
Linda Mwananchi could very well have the last laugh. The firm position from UDA that there will be no zoning offers ODM Linda ground the moral and strategic space to bolt and seek alternative partners. In politics, clarity is currency. Where there is none, mistrust grows.
For starters, ODM’s political infrastructure is naturally in competition with UDA. The two parties fish in overlapping waters. UDA would be reluctant to concede zones because it is not planning for 2027 alone. Its eyes are on 2032 and beyond. From that vantage point, weakening ODM through a no zoning posture is not accidental. It is strategic. Starve the partner today and inherit the territory tomorrow.
For ODM the calculus is different. Zoning everywhere except Nyanza would make political sense from their standpoint. Nyanza remains their bedrock and psychological anchor. That is where they should not have to worry about whether UDA fields candidates or not. Outside that fortress, negotiated space would preserve relevance and protect structures painstakingly built over years.
ODM’s window is small and it is closing fast. Once its grassroots base fully aligns with the President, disentangling them later will be difficult whether negotiations succeed or fail. Political loyalty that shifts in pursuit of power can also harden in defence of it. On the other hand, if ODM were to work with the opposite formation, it would likely maintain much of its national footprint without surrendering its identity. Yet the lure of a few positions in government clouds strategic judgment. History shows that junior partners without defined territory are eventually absorbed.
At present, the only visible strategic glue between UDA and ODM is numbers for UDA and access to government crumbs for ODM. That is not a durable philosophy. It is a temporary transaction.
Without zoning, there is no future in this partnership. There is only postponement of conflict.
There is more to come.
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