By Billy Mijungu
The deternations of ODM and what now looks like ODM B present a political paradox. Both sides appear to have someone they must send away, yet in the end it is the people who will decide who truly leaves the stage.
The simmering divide within the is no longer whispered in corridors. It is visible, structural and ideological. On one end stands the old guard gravitating around , representing continuity, institutional memory and quiet negotiation. On the other end is the assertive reformist wing orbiting around , projecting defiance, generational shift and combative politics.
The question is no longer whether there is a contest. The contest is in earnest.
Hovering above this internal recalibration is the larger gravitational pull of 2027. The succession arithmetic and the chessboard toward the presidency have introduced a new layer of tension.
The internal competition to become running mate to is quietly shaping alliances, loyalties and subtle rebellions. That conversation inevitably unsettles the current office holder, , who cannot be comfortable with parallel centers of ambition forming around him.
Politics abhors vacuum. Where there is perceived space, ambition grows.
If ODM leans toward the Oburu axis, it may pursue accommodation, negotiation and strategic survival. In that path, the Sifuna wing would argue that the party risks dilution, becoming an appendage rather than an alternative. They would insist that clarity requires sending away any posture that appears conciliatory toward power.
If ODM tilts toward the Sifuna axis, it becomes sharper, louder and ideologically distinct. Yet that path may alienate those who believe in gradual influence within the system. The Oburu wing would argue that political longevity requires bridges, not bonfires.
Thus the paradox. ODM of Oburu must symbolically send Kindiki away by rejecting proximity to the current establishment. ODM of Sifuna must send Oburu away by redefining the party’s future away from negotiated accommodation.
But in truth, neither decision rests fully in boardrooms or parliamentary caucuses. It rests with the grassroots. The membership will ultimately determine which ODM survives the split in spirit, if not in name.
As 2027 slowly takes shape, the trio stands at a crossroads. One must consolidate. One must defend. One must decide whether to adapt or resist.
And in politics, timing is everything.
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