By Billy Mijungu
The release of the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census results sent shockwaves across the country. While Kenya’s population grew from 37.7 million in 2009 to 47.6 million in 2019, with an intercensal growth rate declining from 2.9% to 2.2%, some counties, particularly in Northern Kenya, saw unexpected declines. Mandera County recorded a drop from 995,357 residents in 2009 to 867,457 in 2019—a reduction of 127,931 people.
Census data is more than just a demographic tool. It determines how national resources are distributed based on population size, historical marginalization, and geographic factors. Communities like the Somali, who occupy vast land, have faced marginalization and now claim one of the highest birth rates, are deeply affected by census results. The perception that their numbers are rising rapidly due to cultural practices such as polygamy is a simplification of a more complex reality, which includes migration from Somalia.
Kenya can no longer ignore the influence of Somali migration. Decades of war and economic hardship in Somalia have led to a continuous influx of Somali nationals into Kenya. Many settle seamlessly within the local Somali community, making it difficult to distinguish between Kenyan Somalis and recent migrants. This integration has economic and political implications, from the dominance of Somali businesses in Eastleigh to their increasing influence in national affairs. The concern is whether census figures accurately reflect these demographic shifts or whether certain areas are undercounted or overcounted for political and economic reasons.
With census results influencing electoral boundaries and financial resource distribution, it is no surprise that numbers are contested. Some communities inflate figures to secure more resources, while the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) dismisses extreme variations as outliers. However, altering or adjusting census results raises further questions about transparency and fairness.
Kenya must rethink its approach to population dynamics and regional integration. Instead of resisting Somali migration, should Kenya embrace it by formalizing integration policies? The Somali presence is deeply entrenched in Kenya, and their economic and political engagement is undeniable. They were the last to join the East African Community but are among the most committed members.
Rather than treating demographic shifts as threats, Kenya should explore ways to integrate and manage them effectively. Whether through policy adjustments, open-border discussions, or regional cooperation, the reality is clear the Somali presence in Kenya is permanent. Acknowledge and adapt for economic and social growth.
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