By Habil Onyango
Persistent and heavy rainfall in Karachuonyo, within Homa Bay County, and other parts of the Nyanza region have caused major rivers, such as Miriu, Kibuon, and Awach Tende, to burst their banks, displacing hundreds of families and submerging vast tracts of farmland.
Many residents of Kano Plains in Kisumu County also live under the constant threat of devastating floods caused by River Nyando overflowing its banks and backflow from Lake Victoria.
Hundreds of families are typically displaced and seek shelter in Karachuonyo, often camping at local centres such as Simbi Dispensary, Kandiege Primary School, Koyugi, and Yala Primary School.
Overcrowded camps and a lack of adequate mosquito nets have raised concerns over waterborne diseases and malaria outbreaks.
Government and aid relief organisations such as World Vision and the Kenya Red Cross have always been actively responding, conducting household assessments and providing emergency aid.
Global and local weather agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), have issued an official El Niño warning.
Forecasters project an 80-96 per cent likelihood of a moderate to potentially “super” El Niño developing, which could lead to a stark shift from dry conditions mid-year to heavy, disruptive floods toward the end of 2026.
However, according to Homa Bay Senator Moses Otieno Kajwang’, the Kenyan government must rely on early warning systems, which indicate an 80-90 per cent chance of El Niño.
He emphasised that this is crucial for activating emergency protocols, protecting public health, and safeguarding climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.
Furthermore, the Senator urged politicians from flood-prone regions to find permanent solutions to the recurring crisis.
Kajwang’ stated that residents in flood-prone areas like Karachuonyo Constituency and other parts of Nyanza should not wait until the rains start to call for help.
He suggested the country focus on building dams at Magwagwa and the Soin-Koru multi-purpose project to permanently address the ongoing crisis.
“I am pleased that Finance Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, when presenting the budget, indicated that funds have been allocated for the Soin-Koru Multi-purpose project,” he said.
“While this may be a long-term solution, as a nation, we must also start constructing dykes and making early preparations before the El Niño phenomenon begins.”
According to the KMD, global forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions could develop in 2026, significantly affecting weather patterns across Kenya.
Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate, possibly strong.
“While forecasts remain subject to change, there is an 80-82 per cent chance of El Niño occurring between June and August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90-96 per cent for it to persist through the end of 2026,” they warned.
“This phenomenon typically impacts Kenya and the East Africa region in various ways,” they added.
Kano Plains flooding
According to Kajwang’, both the national and county governments, under the leadership of Governor Gladys Wanga and other Nyanza counties, must ensure they have effective early warning systems.
Kajwang’ described it as embarrassing and a sign of poverty that people rely on relief food labelled GOK every year due to inadequate preparedness.
In Homa Bay, heavily affected areas include Kobala, Kanyango, Kawuor, Kojwang, and Kobala.
However, Internal Security Permanent Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo noted that the government has implemented lasting flood mitigation infrastructure in the Kano plains to restore dignity, productivity, and stability.
He highlighted the West Kano-Kanyagwal flood control project in Kadibo sub-county, Kisumu County, managed by the National Water Harvesting and Storage Authority (NWHSA).
“For years, the call of ‘Serikali siadie’ echoed across the Kano flood plains whenever River Nyando overflowed and Lake Victoria backflows caused destruction,” he stated.
“The ongoing flood mitigation infrastructure project is transforming the region, offering hope and stability.”
He explained that the project is reclaiming nearly 7,000 hectares of farmland through the construction of a 3.5 km flood protection dyke, drainage system rehabilitation, upgrades to high-capacity pumping systems, and environmental bio-stabilisation through large-scale grassing and tree planting.
A community footbridge has been built to improve government connectivity and accessibility for residents.
“The intervention is now protecting 2,230 acres of the West Kano irrigation scheme, safeguarding almost 1,000 farmers from repeated crop losses and enabling displaced families to rebuild homes after five years in camps,” Omollo said.
“To ensure the project’s sustainability, the State Department of Internal Security and the National Administration continue coordinating disaster preparedness, community awareness, and emergency response efforts across flood-prone areas, working closely with local leaders and national agencies to strengthen resilience against future climate disturbances,” he added.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also urges nations to strengthen their early warning systems.
